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January 3rd, 2006


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04:54 pm - Prediction Puddle
I remain very interested in the concept of using LJ as a medium through which to play games. undyingking is currently running a LJ interpretation of the board game Inspiration, which is comparable to the game Balderdash and fairly similar to the parlour game known as The Dictionary Game, Fictionary Dictionary and the like. I'm doing poorly, but it's still entertaining.

daweaver ran a prediction game in 2005 under the guise of Mystic Mug and is running another one in 2006: make numerical predictions about sixteen events to happen this year (a decidedly cosmopolitan selection this year, occasionally bordering on obscurity), make two predictions that you think will verifiably come true but other people will consider unlikely and correctly vote "yes" or "no" on these predictions everyone makes. I won a king's ransom by winning last year's competition, mostly aided by Google not updating its page count in January and February and the Bank of England not lowering its base rate in December. The scoring system could do with a category E (and F?) and losing the near-game-breaking category A but I dare say many of you would enjoy taking part. The entry deadline is on 4th January (so, er, tomorrow) and you can enter here.

bateleur is also running a more personalised prediction game - wherein participants are invited to nominate an answer to each of six multiple-choice questions about how the year to come might affect him and his family. As I only rip off the very best, here's my version. Six multiple-choice questions, a point for each correct answer. I'll close the polls in about eight days or so, providing my predictions and commentary as to how plausible I think each possibility is.

Poll #644725 Prediction Puddle 2006

Regarding Meg, on 31st December 2006:

We are married.
4(20.0%)
We engaged and living together.
14(70.0%)
We are engaged, but not living together.
2(10.0%)
Oh dear, it's all gone pear-shaped.
0(0.0%)

Regarding work:

I remain in my current shift work position all year.
9(45.0%)
I move to an office-hours position within the same company this year.
6(30.0%)
I moved to another company this year and work full-time.
5(25.0%)
By the end of 2006, I am not working full-time.
0(0.0%)

Regarding my living arrangements, during the last week of 2006:

I live in my current apartment in Middlesbrough.
12(60.0%)
I have moved back in to what I think of as Dad's house.
0(0.0%)
I live elsewhere, within 6 miles of my current apartment.
5(25.0%)
I live elsewhere, further afield.
3(15.0%)

Regarding health, during 2006:

I suffer minor colds and flu with no more than a week lost due to illness.
13(65.0%)
I suffer more serious transient illnesses.
5(25.0%)
Meg or Dad suffers a breakage, needs inpatient hospital treatment or has some other serious problem.
2(10.0%)
I suffer a breakage, need inpatient hospital treatment or has some other serious problem.
0(0.0%)

Regarding games:

By the end of the year I get to play 4-player (or more) games in person frequently.
2(10.0%)
By the end of the year I get to play 2-player games in person frequently.
16(80.0%)
At least seven full-ish days (either calendar or 24-hour) of games or puzzles, but that's about it.
2(10.0%)
Not even seven full-ish days of games or puzzles.
0(0.0%)

Regarding adventures and misadventures: (Any correct answer scores a point.)

I drink six or more units of alcohol in 24 hours at least once in 2006.
0(0.0%)
I become aware of getting at least a spoken name check on TV seen by at least 25,000 viewers.
2(10.0%)
I go to Bulgaria and blog live from the World Puzzle Championship.
4(20.0%)
I have more than 300 Friends-of throughout December.
4(20.0%)
I fail my driving test three more times.
0(0.0%)
I weigh over 203 pounds, weighhing myself as close to 1/1/07 as is convenient.
1(5.0%)
I spend nights in two countries I have not yet spent nights in.
4(20.0%)
I spend at least an hour on each of at least 20 days in November exercising or practicing a language, a musical instrument or another skill.
0(0.0%)
I take up playing poker for money and end up at least £10 up over the year.
0(0.0%)
I am involved in a car accident which costs me at least £150.
1(5.0%)
I visit a police station at least once in 2006.
3(15.0%)
All eleven possibilities above prove false.
1(5.0%)

As bateleur says, it's not like a wishing well - what you hope will happen is not the issue. If you can't stick to objective predicitions then please don't play at all. Also, please don't change your answers after reading what others have chosen. (For instance, dezzikitty is likely to be pretty good at this - no fair changing your answers to match hers.)

Clarification: If I'm lucky enough to be playing both 4-or-more-player and 2-player games regularly, the 4-player games trump the 2-player ones and that's the only category that will score. Feel free to change this answer if it makes a difference.

Other predictions for 2006, for you, for me or for the world at large are most welcome, whether serious or jovial.
Current Mood: blankyou've had enough clues!

(17 comments | Leave a comment)

Comments:


[User Picture]
From:beingjdc
Date:January 3rd, 2006 05:03 pm (UTC)
(Link)
Protest voting on the failure to make the last one ticky-box, or indeed include any ticky-boxen at all.
[User Picture]
From:jiggery_pokery
Date:January 3rd, 2006 05:09 pm (UTC)
(Link)
Objection overruled. It's not much of a prediction game if can predict more than one (hopefully largely mutually exclusive) alternative.

I would include a poll in this comment with a tickybox just for you, but LJ doesn't let people do that.
[User Picture]
From:sir_quirky_k
Date:January 3rd, 2006 05:09 pm (UTC)
(Link)
I think category C is fairly useless in the Mystic Mug Prediction Game and a bit of tweaking to it or category D would be useful. Don't see many other flaws in it.
From:daweaver
Date:January 3rd, 2006 06:21 pm (UTC)

All hail the mug!

(Link)
Category A is staying, there has to be some reward for an all-or-nothing punt.

I do take the point about the distribution of the other categories. The current set offer variances of 1/40th, 1/20th, and 1/10th of the mean. Next year, I might offer 1/40th, 1/10th, and 2/5th. We shall see.

Oh, and jiggery_pokery... just because my handle doesn't let me use a regular keyboard doesn't mean that I'm not running this contest, and daweaver is interpreting my tea-leaves.

First the prediction competition, then Mystic Mug Takes Over The World! Muahahahahahaha!!!!!!!
[User Picture]
From:jiggery_pokery
Date:January 3rd, 2006 11:22 pm (UTC)

Re: All hail the mug!

(Link)
That sounds like an excellent idea. Suddenly it wouldn't be a no-brainer to pick every category, integer issues aside, as D. With that in mind, offering 20 for an A strikes me as about reasonable, because people will score lots from Cs and Ds.
[User Picture]
From:truecatachresis
Date:January 3rd, 2006 05:27 pm (UTC)
(Link)
I've occasionally considered the possibility of playing a Nomic over Livejournal; I tihnk it could work. The ruleset is in the community info page, proposals etc are formed as polls, and discussion of those proposals takes place in the comments section. Members of the community are players, but anyone can friends-list it to watch the game.
[User Picture]
From:jiggery_pokery
Date:January 4th, 2006 12:39 am (UTC)
(Link)
addedentry once pointed me to what is now http://blognomic.com/ . As ever, joining someone else's Nomic in progress is nowhere near as much fun as starting your own, but this looks considerably less scary than it used to, last time I looked.

I shall be cowering quietly in the corner. Please do not mind me.
[User Picture]
From:rhysara
Date:January 3rd, 2006 09:25 pm (UTC)
(Link)
Every once in awhile I emerge from my game obsessed haze and realize that I am clearly spoiled with regard to how frequently my various groups of friends game. Large gatherings once a week are the best thing ever!

Sadly, I've even started logging my games, 77 games played in the month of december.

so very very very sad.
[User Picture]
From:jiggery_pokery
Date:January 3rd, 2006 10:56 pm (UTC)
(Link)
Not that sad. I did it for years myself and wish that I hadn't lost my notebook so that I still would be doing it now.

I could always start again for 2006, couldn't I?
[User Picture]
From:rhysara
Date:January 4th, 2006 12:12 am (UTC)
(Link)
new years resolution!
[User Picture]
From:rhysara
Date:January 6th, 2006 02:58 am (UTC)
(Link)
Speaking of games....

I've had an idea for a card game for awhile and this afternoon I actually sat down and wrote some of it out... I am now fishing for feedback...
[User Picture]
From:bateleur
Date:January 4th, 2006 10:34 am (UTC)
(Link)
Hurrah ! Predicty game !

Incidentally, I was pleased to note immediately after voting that my answer to every question was modal. It will be interesting to see if any of the heavily favoured answers prove to be wrong.
[User Picture]
From:gayparee
Date:January 4th, 2006 09:11 pm (UTC)

Who ate all the pies?

(Link)
This on a "I'll scratch your back" basis. Now go and get started on those pies, you thin bar steward.
[User Picture]
From:jiggery_pokery
Date:January 5th, 2006 02:40 am (UTC)

Re: Who ate all the pies?

(Link)
It's Guess The Weight of the Dickson all over again, isn't it?

Shout goin' out to the Games In Testing "masseev".
[User Picture]
From:jiggery_pokery
Date:January 12th, 2006 01:32 am (UTC)

The votes are in

(Link)
Regarding Meg, on 31st December 2006:
We are married. 4 (20.0%)
We engaged and living together. 14 (70.0%)
We are engaged, but not living together. 2 (10.0%)
Oh dear, it's all gone pear-shaped. 0 (0.0%)

Regarding work:
I remain in my current shift work position all year. 9 (45.0%)
I move to an office-hours position within the same company this year. 6 (30.0%)
I moved to another company this year and work full-time. 5 (25.0%)
By the end of 2006, I am not working full-time. 0 (0.0%)

Regarding my living arrangements, during the last week of 2006:
I live in my current apartment in Middlesbrough. 12 (60.0%)
I have moved back in to what I think of as Dad's house. 0 (0.0%)
I live elsewhere, within 6 miles of my current apartment. 5 (25.0%)
I live elsewhere, further afield. 3 (15.0%)

Regarding health, during 2006:
I suffer minor colds and flu with no more than a week lost due to illness. 13 (65.0%)
I suffer more serious transient illnesses. 5 (25.0%)
Meg or Dad suffers a breakage, needs inpatient hospital treatment or has some other serious problem. 2 (10.0%)
I suffer a breakage, need inpatient hospital treatment or has some other serious problem. 0 (0.0%)

Regarding games:
By the end of the year I get to play 4-player (or more) games in person frequently. 2 (10.0%)
By the end of the year I get to play 2-player games in person frequently. 16 (80.0%)
At least seven full-ish days (either calendar or 24-hour) of games or puzzles, but that's about it. 2 (10.0%)
Not even seven full-ish days of games or puzzles. 0 (0.0%)

Regarding adventures and misadventures: (Any correct answer scores a point.)
I drink six or more units of alcohol in 24 hours at least once in 2006. 0 (0.0%)
I become aware of getting at least a spoken name check on TV seen by at least 25,000 viewers. 2 (10.0%)
I go to Bulgaria and blog live from the World Puzzle Championship. 4 (20.0%)
I have more than 300 Friends-of throughout December. 4 (20.0%)
I fail my driving test three more times. 0 (0.0%)
I weigh over 203 pounds, weighhing myself as close to 1/1/07 as is convenient. 1 (5.0%)
I spend nights in two countries I have not yet spent nights in. 4 (20.0%)
I spend at least an hour on each of at least 20 days in November exercising or practicing a language, a musical instrument or another skill. 0 (0.0%)
I take up playing poker for money and end up at least £10 up over the year. 0 (0.0%)
I am involved in a car accident which costs me at least £150. 1 (5.0%)
I visit a police station at least once in 2006. 3 (15.0%)
All eleven possibilities above prove false. 1 (5.0%)
[User Picture]
From:jiggery_pokery
Date:January 12th, 2006 01:37 am (UTC)

Who said what, part 1

(Link)
Regarding Meg, on 31st December 2006:
beingjdc -- We are married.
bopeepsheep -- We engaged and living together.
addedentry -- We engaged and living together.
lathany -- We engaged and living together.
truecatachresis -- We are married.
undyingking -- We engaged and living together.
elvie -- We engaged and living together.
strangefrontier -- We engaged and living together.
daweaver -- We engaged and living together.
quidditchmaster -- We are married.
missingdonut -- We engaged and living together.
imc -- We engaged and living together.
rhysara -- We engaged and living together.
lambertman -- We are engaged, but not living together.
dezzikitty -- We engaged and living together.
quiz_master_man -- We engaged and living together.
huskyteer -- We are engaged, but not living together.
bateleur -- We engaged and living together.
gayparee -- We are married.
leiabelle -- We engaged and living together.

Regarding work:
beingjdc -- I move to an office-hours position within the same company this year.
bopeepsheep -- I remain in my current shift work position all year.
addedentry -- I remain in my current shift work position all year.
lathany -- I move to an office-hours position within the same company this year.
truecatachresis -- I move to an office-hours position within the same company this year.
undyingking -- I remain in my current shift work position all year.
elvie -- I moved to another company this year and work full-time.
strangefrontier -- I remain in my current shift work position all year.
daweaver -- I remain in my current shift work position all year.
quidditchmaster -- I move to an office-hours position within the same company this year.
missingdonut -- I move to an office-hours position within the same company this year.
imc -- I remain in my current shift work position all year.
rhysara -- I remain in my current shift work position all year.
lambertman -- I moved to another company this year and work full-time.
dezzikitty -- I move to an office-hours position within the same company this year.
quiz_master_man -- I moved to another company this year and work full-time.
huskyteer -- I moved to another company this year and work full-time.
bateleur -- I remain in my current shift work position all year.
gayparee -- I moved to another company this year and work full-time.
leiabelle -- I remain in my current shift work position all year.

Regarding health, during 2006:
beingjdc -- I suffer more serious transient illnesses.
bopeepsheep -- I suffer more serious transient illnesses.
addedentry -- I suffer minor colds and flu with no more than a week lost due to illness.
lathany -- I suffer minor colds and flu with no more than a week lost due to illness.
truecatachresis -- I suffer minor colds and flu with no more than a week lost due to illness.
undyingking -- I suffer minor colds and flu with no more than a week lost due to illness.
elvie -- I suffer more serious transient illnesses.
strangefrontier -- I suffer minor colds and flu with no more than a week lost due to illness.
daweaver -- I suffer minor colds and flu with no more than a week lost due to illness.
quidditchmaster -- Meg or Dad suffers a breakage, needs inpatient hospital treatment or has some other serious problem.
missingdonut -- I suffer minor colds and flu with no more than a week lost due to illness.
imc -- Meg or Dad suffers a breakage, needs inpatient hospital treatment or has some other serious problem.
rhysara -- I suffer minor colds and flu with no more than a week lost due to illness.
lambertman -- I suffer more serious transient illnesses.
dezzikitty -- I suffer minor colds and flu with no more than a week lost due to illness.
quiz_master_man -- I suffer more serious transient illnesses.
huskyteer -- I suffer minor colds and flu with no more than a week lost due to illness.
bateleur -- I suffer minor colds and flu with no more than a week lost due to illness.
gayparee -- I suffer minor colds and flu with no more than a week lost due to illness.
leiabelle -- I suffer minor colds and flu with no more than a week lost due to illness.
[User Picture]
From:jiggery_pokery
Date:January 12th, 2006 01:41 am (UTC)

Who said what, part 2

(Link)
Regarding my living arrangements, during the last week of 2006:
beingjdc -- I live in my current apartment in Middlesbrough.
bopeepsheep -- I live elsewhere, within 6 miles of my current apartment.
addedentry -- I live elsewhere, within 6 miles of my current apartment.
lathany -- I live in my current apartment in Middlesbrough.
truecatachresis -- I live in my current apartment in Middlesbrough.
undyingking -- I live in my current apartment in Middlesbrough.
elvie -- I live elsewhere, within 6 miles of my current apartment.
strangefrontier -- I live elsewhere, within 6 miles of my current apartment.
daweaver -- I live elsewhere, within 6 miles of my current apartment.
quidditchmaster -- I live in my current apartment in Middlesbrough.
missingdonut -- I live in my current apartment in Middlesbrough.
imc -- I live in my current apartment in Middlesbrough.
rhysara -- I live elsewhere, further afield.
lambertman -- I live in my current apartment in Middlesbrough.
dezzikitty -- I live in my current apartment in Middlesbrough.
quiz_master_man -- I live elsewhere, further afield.
huskyteer -- I live in my current apartment in Middlesbrough.
bateleur -- I live in my current apartment in Middlesbrough.
gayparee -- I live elsewhere, further afield.
leiabelle -- I live in my current apartment in Middlesbrough.

Regarding games:
beingjdc -- At least seven full-ish days (either calendar or 24-hour) of games or puzzles, but that's about it.
bopeepsheep -- 2-player games in person frequently.
addedentry -- 2-player games in person frequently.
lathany -- 2-player games in person frequently.
truecatachresis -- 4-player (or more) games in person frequently.
undyingking -- 2-player games in person frequently.
elvie -- 2-player games in person frequently.
strangefrontier -- 2-player games in person frequently.
daweaver -- 2-player games in person frequently.
quidditchmaster -- 4-player (or more) games in person frequently.
missingdonut -- At least seven full-ish days (either calendar or 24-hour) of games or puzzles, but that's about it.
imc -- 2-player games in person frequently.
rhysara -- 2-player games in person frequently.
lambertman -- 2-player games in person frequently.
dezzikitty -- 2-player games in person frequently.
quiz_master_man -- 2-player games in person frequently.
huskyteer -- 2-player games in person frequently.
bateleur -- 2-player games in person frequently.
gayparee -- 2-player games in person frequently.
leiabelle -- 2-player games in person frequently.

Regarding adventures and misadventures:
beingjdc -- All eleven possibilities above prove false.
bopeepsheep -- I have more than 300 Friends-of throughout December.
addedentry -- I become aware of getting at least a spoken name check on TV seen by at least 25,000 viewers.
lathany -- I go to Bulgaria and blog live from the World Puzzle Championship.
truecatachresis -- I spend nights in two countries I have not yet spent nights in.
undyingking -- I have more than 300 Friends-of throughout December.
elvie -- I visit a police station at least once in 2006.
strangefrontier -- I go to Bulgaria and blog live from the World Puzzle Championship.
daweaver -- I visit a police station at least once in 2006.
quidditchmaster -- I go to Bulgaria and blog live from the World Puzzle Championship.
missingdonut -- I am involved in a car accident which costs me at least £150.
imc -- I have more than 300 Friends-of throughout December.
rhysara -- I visit a police station at least once in 2006.
lambertman -- I have more than 300 Friends-of throughout December.
dezzikitty -- I spend nights in two countries I have not yet spent nights in.
quiz_master_man -- I become aware of getting at least a spoken name check on TV seen by at least 25,000 viewers.
huskyteer -- I spend nights in two countries I have not yet spent nights in.
bateleur -- I go to Bulgaria and blog live from the World Puzzle Championship.
gayparee -- I weigh over 203 pounds, weighhing myself as close to 1/1/07 as is convenient.
leiabelle -- I spend nights in two countries I have not yet spent nights in.

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