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Prediction Puddle Prove-Out - Many a mickle maks a muckle

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January 22nd, 2007


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12:59 am - Prediction Puddle Prove-Out
A little over a year ago, I invited you to predict what might happen to me over the remainder of 2006.

Here are the results. Considering my analyses for the predictions, although 2006 was a highly eventful year, it was not a terribly surprising one.

Regarding Meg, on 31st December 2006:
* We are married.
* We engaged and living together.
* We are engaged, but not living together.
* Oh dear, it's all gone pear-shaped.

We successfully engaged (hmm, there really should be an "are" in there) and Meg's move across, although more expensive than planned, went to plan surprisingly well. Everything remains well between us. All to plan, really.

Points to 14 of you: bopeepsheep, addedentry, lathany, undyingking, elvie, strangefrontier, daweaver, missingdonut, imc, rhysara, dezzikitty, quiz_master_man, bateleur and leiabelle.

Regarding work:
* I remain in my current shift work position all year.
* I move to an office-hours position within the same company this year.
* I moved to another company this year and work full-time.
* By the end of 2006, I am not working full-time.

This came into slightly greater uncertainty than I was expecting; if I had been successful in my application for the position in New Ventures then I would have moved onto office hours, or thereabouts. No desire to move to another company and I'm not aware of anybody having left except by choice.

Points to 9 of you: bopeepsheep, addedentry, undyingking, strangefrontier, daweaver, imc, rhysara, bateleur and leiabelle.

Regarding my living arrangements, during the last week of 2006:
* I live in my current apartment in Middlesbrough.
* I have moved back in to what I think of as Dad's house.
* I live elsewhere, within 6 miles of my current apartment.
* I live elsewhere, further afield.

The current apartment suited reasonably well, though we've found a new one which will be much more of a family home. We were looking at some other properties a couple of months ago; had the one we've ended up with - of which more later! - been on the market a few months ago then this might have turned out differently.

Points to 12 of you: beingjdc, lathany, truecatachresis, undyingking, quidditchmaster, missingdonut, imc, lambertman, dezzikitty, huskyteer, bateleur and leiabelle.

Regarding health, during 2006:
* I suffer minor colds and flu with no more than a week lost due to illness.
* I suffer more serious transient illnesses.
* Meg or Dad suffers a breakage, needs inpatient hospital treatment or has some other serious problem.
* I suffer a breakage, need inpatient hospital treatment or has some other serious problem.

This was close, but a small but distinct amount over a week was lost. As discussed, I had a cold which laid me out for a day in February, a couple of lousy days in April, a missed shift at work and some ongoing fever in May, then a cold in June took me out of action for four days, with another week plus of occasional coughing up phlegm.

Second half of the year? Nothing. Wonderful! Not a thing. Remarkable, really. Nevertheless, the first half of 2006 was an intermittently rough patch to the tune of "more serious transient illnesses". If a large part of my health has been due to a decrease in stress once Meg's move to the UK became more and more certain, so much the better. Happily, nothing more serious happened to Dad, Meg or me.

Points to 5 of you: beingjdc, bopeepsheep, elvie, lambertman and quiz_master_man.

Regarding games:
* By the end of the year I get to play 4-player (or more) games in person frequently.
* By the end of the year I get to play 2-player games in person frequently.
* At least seven full-ish days (either calendar or 24-hour) of games or puzzles, but that's about it.
* Not even seven full-ish days of games or puzzles.

An easy choice. Meg came across and lots of two-player games have been on the agenda ever since. Most frequently played: Rummikub, less frequently played: Scrabble, Gin Rummy, Batik and Fluxx. For Christmas Meg kindly bought me Lost Cities and TransAmerica which made it onto the table frequently during the last days of the year. If there hadn't been games with Meg, I don't think there would have been as many as seven full days of games: a couple at OxCon, really one at StabCon, but that's about it.

Points to 16 of you: bopeepsheep, addedentry, lathany, undyingking, elvie, strangefrontier, daweaver, imc, rhysara, lambertman, dezzikitty, quiz_master_man, huskyteer, bateleur, gayparee and leiabelle.

Regarding adventures and misadventures:
* I drink six or more units of alcohol in 24 hours at least once in 2006.
* I become aware of getting at least a spoken name check on TV seen by at least 25,000 viewers.
* I go to Bulgaria and blog live from the World Puzzle Championship.
* I have more than 300 Friends-of throughout December.
* I fail my driving test three more times.
* I weigh over 203 pounds, weighhing myself as close to 1/1/07 as is convenient.
* I spend nights in two countries I have not yet spent nights in.
* I spend at least an hour on each of at least 20 days in November exercising or practicing a language, a musical instrument or another skill.
* I take up playing poker for money and end up at least £10 up over the year.
* I am involved in a car accident which costs me at least £150.
* I visit a police station at least once in 2006.
* All eleven possibilities above prove false.

Alcohol? Nope. There was that one time on the aeroplane where I bought a non-alcoholic cocktail which turned out to contain vodka, but that was it.
Name check? Nope. It might have happened, but I was never made aware of it.
Bulgaria? Nope. I was on shift those days, plus I wouldn't really have wanted to leave Meg on her own.
301+ Friends-of? Nope. I think I got to 281 at one point, including novelty and troll accounts, which isn't bad.
Driving test? Nearly, but only nearly. I failed it three times in total, but only twice more after that post. Thankfully.
Weight? Nope. 189 pounds when I weighed myself at 5 a.m. on 1/1/07, same as on 1/1/06.
Travel? Nope. Just the US. Couldn't afford it with all the moving expenses! :-)
Exercising and practicing? Nope. In truth I had forgotten about this when it came to November, but would have been too busy with Real Life anyway.
Poker? Nope. Bit of a trick option as I'm increasingly likely never to pay poker for money ever again.
Accident? Not as such. The car broke down half-way to work once (the near-side drive shaft snapped) and repairing that cost more than £150, but a breakdown is not what I would consider an accident.
Police station? No, but maybe I should have done. At another point, I went out to the car which had been stored in the locked, gated compound outside our window overnight and discovered that some scrote had punched out the lock on the driver's side. However, they didn't apparently manage to get into the car, they didn't break any windows and the remote locking continued to work normally. After research, it didn't seem worth claiming on the insurance, so I didn't report it to the police and so didn't visit the police station.
All eleven possibilities above prove false? Evidently so!

A point to one of you: beingjdc. Rather a harder-earned and so smugger point than the others, I suggest, but nevertheless only worth one point.

I deliberately didn't specify a tie-break because it is a wonderful thing for many people to share in the joy of victory, but many congratulations to the winners, all scoring 4/6: bateleur, bopeepsheep, imc, leiabelle and undyingking, all of whom were able to predict my year more successfully than the woman I love and with whom I live. :-P (For the record, bopeepsheep scored for games, job, health and Meg; the other four scored for games, job, living arrangements and Meg.)

In conclusion, the game wasn't as interesting as I had hoped, mostly because the year turned out to be so close to my original intention. I have plans for another "predict my year" game, probably closer in spirit (though not in mechanics) to the last "adventures and misadventures" question. See, I think it would be interesting to try to make it interactive so that you can influence my year, and the outcome of the contest, to some extent. Generating suitable source material - interesting potential events that are neither too likely nor too unlikely to make the predictions too obvious - is challenging, though.
Current Mood: happypredictable

(3 comments | Leave a comment)

Comments:


[User Picture]
From:beingjdc
Date:January 22nd, 2007 09:24 am (UTC)
(Link)
Hurrah! A point!
From:scat0324
Date:January 22nd, 2007 10:36 am (UTC)
(Link)
Three, shirley.
[User Picture]
From:undyingking
Date:January 22nd, 2007 12:00 pm (UTC)
(Link)
Sorry that you were iller than I'd predicted!

(And not just because I'd have scored more points if you hadn't been ;-)

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