April 15th, 2009


Long-shot Prediction Game: the results

A shamefully long time ago, I proposed a multi-stage prediction competition pertaining to twelve moderately unlikely events which might or might not happen, with a focus on the last five months of 2008 and the first month of 2009. Now we're well into 2009, the long-complete competition is starting to get rather rancid. Let me put it out of its misery before the stench of pallor completely stinks the place out.

First, we determine which - if any - of the twelve long-shots did come to fruition, Collapse ) Thus, in conclusion, one (1) of the twelve long-shots happened. The prediction part of the game ran over two rounds: the first round saw people estimate the number of items which would happen over the time period, and the second round saw people effectively wager points on each of the twelve propositions at community-defined, and community-refined, odds. Collapse )

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