August 6th, 2011


Someone else's prediction game

How are you doing? I am doing *international rotating-hand gesture for "so-so"*; Meg has gone to London this weekend to see some lovely people and it is a filthy, grey day here. Another friend is on a London-to-Edinburgh train and is probably within thirty miles of here but has been delayed due to lightning strikes. There's a storm brewin'.

In late 2008 I organised a multi-stage long-shot prediction game on LiveJournal which was adequately diverting. It might be time to bring it back out of its box, with some modifications, in 2012. However, if your memories of it were fond then a prediction tournament held by the Good Judgment team, may be relevant to your interests with the potential to be paid a token honorarium for participating in a longer-term study into forecasting, its methods and conclusions.

"Over the course of each year, forecasters will have an opportunity to respond to 100 questions, each requiring a separate prediction, such as “How many countries in the Euro zone will default on bonds in 2011?” or “Will Southern Sudan become an independent country in 2011?” Researchers from the Good Judgment Project will look for the best ways to combine these individual forecasts to yield the most accurate “collective wisdom” results. Participants also will receive feedback on their individual results."

I don't have any particular oonnection to the contest myself - suspect it may be restricted to those with university degrees, not sure if there are unspoken residence/nationality requirements - but it has an interesting background and looks sufficiently legit and interesting to be worth a plug.

Please redirect any comments here, using OpenID or (identified, ideally) anonymous posting; there are comments to the post already. Thank you!
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