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So what sort of mood was I in last night? - Many a mickle maks a muckle

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February 4th, 2003

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04:54 pm - So what sort of mood was I in last night?
You can probably tell what sort of mood someone is in more accurately from their actions than anything else. I was feeling pretty good after I finished last night's post, but for most of yesterday...

I do enjoy reading about other people's poker exploits, so here's one of my own. The backstory is that I'm still playing in the WRGPT cashless poker-by-e-mail event; about 1100 people started, each with 10000 chips, but we're down to 476 players left at the start of this hand and I'm doing slightly better than average.

! Table e46, Hand 94, Day 113

! Dealing a new hand
! Everyone antes $400
! Dan Nussbaum blinds $800
! Chris M Dickson blinds $1600
! Halle Asterbadi is next to act, $1600 to call
! Unlimited raises
! Pot size: $6400
! Next timeout set for Mon, 03 Feb 2003 15:05 EST
! Betting round: 1
! Board: ? ? ? ? ?
|#|   Name                     |Bankroll| Action |Status|Pot#|Pot Size|
 1|   Michael Maurer           |   9750 |    400 |      |    |        |
 2|D  S Casey                  |  17600 |    400 |      |    |        |
 3|   Dan Nussbaum             |  27000 |   1200 |      |    |        |
 4|   Chris M Dickson          |  39250 |   2000 |      |    |        |
 5|>  Halle Asterbadi          |  57750 |    400 |      |    |        |
 6|   Jim VanWinkle            |  38275 |    400 |      |    |        |
 7|   Greg FeltShark Reynolds  |  29175 |    400 |      |    |        |
 8|   Lee Bulmer               |  20025 |    400 |      |    |        |
 9|   ADB Bingo                |  12000 |    400 |      |    |        |
10|   Eric J Holtman           |  26175 |    400 |      |    |        |

The table has been pretty loose so far; as far as I can tell, I've got a reputation for playing pretty tightly, though most of them did see my crazy all-in call (and subsequent suckout) with AJo as previously discussed. It may also be relevant that I timed out during the last hand but one (going to MacT00bage meant I didn't have access to my main e-mail program and so folded a hand going AWOL. Could/should have gone on vacation, but I thought that I'd have good enough e-mail access not to do so and was playing a hand which had some potential.)

I have Jh 2c. Halle Asterbadi, the big stack, calls UTG, everyone folds to the blinds, SB limps in and I check. So the flop comes as follows:

! Dan Nussbaum calls 
! Chris M Dickson checks
! Pot right ($8800), flopping/dealing/drawing cards
! 3 players
! Flopped cards: 9h 8h 5s
! Dan Nussbaum is first to act
! Pot size: $8800
! Next timeout set for Tue, 04 Feb 2003 15:05 EST
! Betting round: 2
! Board: 9h 8h 5s ? ?
|#|   Name                     |Bankroll| Action |Status|Pot#|Pot Size|
 1|   Michael Maurer           |   9750 |    400 |folded|    |        |
 2|D  S Casey                  |  17600 |    400 |folded|    |        |
 3|>  Dan Nussbaum             |  26200 |   2000 |      |    |        |
 4|   Chris M Dickson          |  39250 |   2000 |      |    |        |
 5|   Halle Asterbadi          |  56150 |   2000 |      |    |        |
 6|   Jim VanWinkle            |  38275 |    400 |folded|    |        |
 7|   Greg FeltShark Reynolds  |  29175 |    400 |folded|    |        |
 8|   Lee Bulmer               |  20025 |    400 |folded|    |        |
 9|   ADB Bingo                |  12000 |    400 |folded|    |        |
10|   Eric J Holtman           |  26175 |    400 |folded|    |        |

...and Dan checks. I push all in very quickly on essentially a complete bluff - three to a heart flush, J98 to the vague outside hope of a straight.

This is the move of someone in a plainly reckless mood, the move of someone who is thinking "awww, fuck it". Now I think this move is representing that I have one of, in decreasing order of plausibility:
  • hit at least one of the top two pairs

  • an overpair or overcards that I didn't raise for some reason

  • a nut flush draw

  • four to a straight, or possibly even 67 for a made straight

I put Halle on something like an Ace or a low pair based on his just-a-call, so all of my hands are likely to be winning and I've made it very expensive for anyone to call.

Halle does call. Turns out he has JJ. Turn is A, river 6. His pocket Jacks are good and I have nothing. Eh-oh, time for Tubby-bye-byes. Insert Jesse May-isms about any hand possibly being your last in no-limit poker.

Now my push all in was aggressive, certainly, and not made for the right reasons; I was in that illogical a mood last night - post-t00bage comedown and miscellaneous not-fitting-in angst. Was it really that obvious a bluff or otherwise a stupid play, though? Comments most welcome.

I have enjoyed the WRGPT, all told, though, and may well play again next year, though there are ways in which I'm glad to be out of it and don't have it hanging at the back of my mind. On top of that, I'm hoping that I might be able to pick up a tape of the poker on Sky last Friday tonight. Unfortunately I've had the results of the heat spoiled already, but it sounds like it'll be a good show - and it does have the Jesse doing commentary. TELL US ABOUT THAT DEALER BUTTON, BARNEY!

One other thought is that people say that you can't get tells on people's moods at all easily in online poker. However, it now strikes me that if you're playing against another blogger, LiveJournalist and so forth then you might be able to tell whether they are on tilt or not from the mood of their most recent entries. A really serious WRGPT player might try to find out what he can about his opponents and stalk them online while they're at your table. Who knows, maybe Halle Asterbadi has found this already and did use my last posting to get a read on me. Hi, Halle! :-)
Current Mood: whee, 1" of snow on the ground
Current Music: That Krazy Dan Sadro (currently #1003)

(2 comments | Leave a comment)


[User Picture]
Date:February 4th, 2003 11:26 am (UTC)

Not Obvious

...but Poker is a statistical game. You don't deduce whether someone is bluffing, you deduce the odds that they might be.

In this case your opponent got lucky. Exactly how lucky depends on how often you bluff.
Date:February 4th, 2003 03:28 pm (UTC)
Halle may not have known you were bluffing. She (Halle is a she, right?) may just have figured that in all likelihood, she was best. After all, JJ can beat a pair of eights or somesuch. And your push *looks* like you don't want a call, as you are massively overbetting the pot. It doesn't mean you have nothing (perhaps you have A8 which you want to protect against overcards) or maybe you are on a draw, but I know that if I had 98 or 65 or a set I wouldn't massively overbet the pot and in all likelihood shut out the action. Of course, you might think that she's thinking this and therefore push in with a monster, but if she has nothing (or very little, like overcards), she's not going to call you anyway. So that wouldn't be a very good way to make money either unless you figured she had a hand. (And there's no reason you should think so given the pre-flop action. She got tricky with it, but was risking overcards coming down. In that case, I don't know if she would have given up the hand or not. If she's a wiley player, she probably would, given the size of the pot relative to her stack.)

So it looks to me like you don't want to get called, and so she had an easy call with JJ.

I don't know if she was thinking all that, or if she just thought, "Wow, JJ! I have to call!" :-)

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